--- title: "4Thought’s Weekly Market Perspective: 9/8/2020" description: 4Thought provides actionable investment analysis and perspective on the financial markets to you on a weekly basis. image: https://www.4tfg.com/hubfs/Blog/Graphic%20of%20night%20sky%20with%20trees%20that%20says%204Thoughts%20Weekly%20Market%20Perspective.jpg --- [![4thought_footer-logo.png](https://www.4tfg.com/hs-fs/hubfs/4thought_footer-logo.png?width=335&height=101&name=4thought_footer-logo.png "4thought_footer-logo.png")](https://www.4tfg.com/) - [![4Thought Financial Group](https://www.4tfg.com/hubfs/4thought_footer-logo.png)](https://www.4tfg.com/) [![4Thought Financial Group Compass](https://www.4tfg.com/hubfs/4Though-Compass.png)](https://www.4tfg.com/) - [About 4Thought](https://www.4tfg.com/investment-methodology) - [Our Investment Methodology](https://www.4tfg.com/investment-methodology) - [Management Team](https://www.4tfg.com/management) - [In the Media](https://www.4tfg.com/media) - [Contact](https://www.4tfg.com/contact) - [Services](https://www.4tfg.com/investing) - [Private Individual Investing](https://www.4tfg.com/investing) - [SMAs for RIA /Institutional /Family Office](https://www.4tfg.com/financial-advisors-and-institutions) - [Services for CPAs](https://www.4tfg.com/cpa-investing-services) - [Private Wealth Management](https://www.4tfg.com/wealth-management) - [Retirement Plan Services](https://www.4tfg.com/retirement-plan-services) - [Resources](https://www.4tfg.com/resources) - [Financial News](https://www.4tfg.com/resources) - [Portfolio Review](https://www.4tfg.com/portfolio-review) - [Investment Performance](https://www.4tfg.com/performance-requests) - [CPA Continuing Education](https://www.4tfg.com/cpe-continuing-education) - [FAQs](https://www.4tfg.com/faq) - [FAQs](https://www.4tfg.com/faq) - [Contact](https://www.4tfg.com/contact) - Log In - [Goldman Sachs Accounts](https://www.folioclient.com/servlets/ProcessAction?identifier=loginFormEntry&user.mode=IAC) - [Wealth Management](https://wealth.emaplan.com/ema/SignIn?ema) - [Consolidated Reporting](https://client.myadvisorlink.com/auth/users/webportal/4tfg) - [Retirement Plan Services](https://www.4tfg.com/rps-login) - - Log In - [Goldman Sachs Accounts](https://www.folioclient.com/servlets/ProcessAction?identifier=loginFormEntry&user.mode=IAC) - [Wealth Management](https://wealth.emaplan.com/ema/SignIn?ema) - [Consolidated Reporting](https://client.myadvisorlink.com/auth/users/webportal/4tfg) - [Retirement Plan Services](https://www.4tfg.com/rps-login) ## 4Thought Investing Resources ## 4Thought Investing Resources [Financial News](https://www.4tfg.com/resources/) [Investment Strategy](https://www.4tfg.com/resources/topic/investment-strategy) [Personal Finance](https://www.4tfg.com/resources/topic/personal-investing) [Business Finance](https://www.4tfg.com/resources/topic/business-finance) [For Professionals](https://www.4tfg.com/resources/topic/financial-professionals)[Compass and Crosshairs](https://www.4tfg.com/resources/topic/compass-and-crosshairs) SUBSCRIBE Subscribe for free tips and articles to help you lead a smarter financial life. [Financial News](https://www.4tfg.com/resources) ,[Market Perspective](https://www.4tfg.com/resources/topic/market-perspective) # 4Thought’s Weekly Market Perspective: 9/8/2020 4Thought provides actionable investment analysis and perspective on the financial markets to you on a weekly basis. \[fa icon="calendar"\] Sep 8, 2020 10:08:15 AM by [4Thought Financial](https://www.4tfg.com/resources/author/4thought-financial)   ### 4Thought provides actionable investment analysis and perspective on the financial markets to you on a weekly basis. [Contact us](https://www.4tfg.com/contact) to determine whether any ideas presented are applicable to your situation before taking any actions with regards to your financial plan or investment portfolio.  Hear from Chief Investment Officer [Jesse Mackey](https://www.4tfg.com/management) in this week's Market Perspective. ### Video Transcript I’m Jesse Mackey, CIO of 4Thought Financial Group, and this is 4Thought’s Weekly Market Perspective for the week of September 8th, 2020. The S&P 500 Index of US large cap stocks experienced a minor but steep pullback during the last two trading days, but it still remains about 1% above its February 19th, 2020 prior Bull Market peak as of the close of business on Friday. It first re-achieved that record level on August 18th. The rapid recovery from the 2020 Bear Market low point on March 23rd (at which point the S&P 500 had dropped more than 34% from its peak) meets our technical definition of a new Bull Market. Historical data indicates that once a new Bull Market has been confirmed, the shortest time period on record (since 1950) before the beginning of another Bear Market was approximately 4.4 months, and the longest time on record was approximately 10.7 years, with the average coming in at about 3.2 years. Only 17 days have elapsed from the point of Bull confirmation in this instance so far. From a probabilistic analysis perspective, stock types range from near fair value (such as with mid cap stocks) to significantly overvalued (in the case of large cap growth stocks). Bond types range from near fair value (in the case of emerging markets bonds) to slightly overvalued (in the case of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). Against this backdrop the outlook for stocks is now neutral in the intermediate term based on the overall aggregate of our historical market-type data analysis and quantitative probabilistic analysis. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are now the best performers so far in 2020, while US small cap stocks show the worst year-to-date performance. US mid cap stock now reflect the most attractive pricing relative to the alternatives, while US large cap growth and tech stocks are by far the least attractive. With regards to allocations amongst investment methods, we are now allowing overweight allocations to Liability-Driven Investing, neutral allocations to Strategic Asset Allocation, and underweights to Selective/Concentrated Investing, and Opportunistic Investing. I hope this was helpful. If you have questions or you’d like to discuss how to implement any of this, please contact 4Thought at [516-300-1617](tel:5163001617) or at [info@4tfg.com](mailto:info@4tfg.com) – and don’t forget to subscribe to our [blog feed](https://www.4tfg.com/resources) and our [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEHRK-25mAwfTlNzdvFSN3g). 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Information throughout this site, including, but not limited to, stock quotes, charts, articles or any other statement or statements regarding market or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance. Neither we nor our information providers shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in the transmission thereof to the user. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION POSTED ON THIS OR ANY LINKED WEBSITE. Any opinions presented here are subject to change at any time without notice. Any comments or postings are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. Readers should conduct their own review and exercise judgment prior to investing. Investments are not guaranteed, involve risk and may result in a loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments are not suitable for all types of investors. \*4Thought Financial Group claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a registered trademark of CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. The GIPS firm definition excludes any third party asset management programs over which 4Thought maintains oversight advisory agreements on behalf of its clients, any arrangements under which 4Thought provides recommendations for client self-implementation, and any assets under advisory but not under direct management (in which 4Thought provides allocation changes or trading signals to third party firms but does not take discretion over the trading of client accounts). GIPS-compliant performance information for 4Thought's strategies may be obtained by email at [info@4tfg.com](mailto:info@4tfg.com); on the 4Thought website at [https://www.4tfg.com/performance-requests](https://www.4tfg.com/performance-requests); or by phone at (516) 300-1617. ```json { "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "Organization", "address" : { "@type" : "PostalAddress", "addressCountry" : "", "addressLocality" : "Syosset", "addressRegion" : "New York", "postalCode" : "11791", "streetAddress" : "6851 Jericho Turnpike Suite 120" }, "alternateName" : "4 Thought Financial Group", "areaServed" : { "@type" : "GeoCircle", "geoMidpoint" : { "latitude" : "+40.8100713", "longitude" : "-73.5172286" }, "geoRadius" : "150 km" }, "description" : "4Thought provides actionable investment analysis and perspective on the financial markets to you on a weekly basis. 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