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Hear from Chief Investment Officer Jesse Mackey in this week's Market Perspective.
I’m Jesse Mackey, CIO of 4Thought Financial Group, and this is 4Thought’s Weekly Market Perspective for the week of September 8th, 2020.
The S&P 500 Index of US large cap stocks experienced a minor but steep pullback during the last two trading days, but it still remains about 1% above its February 19th, 2020 prior Bull Market peak as of the close of business on Friday. It first re-achieved that record level on August 18th.
The rapid recovery from the 2020 Bear Market low point on March 23rd (at which point the S&P 500 had dropped more than 34% from its peak) meets our technical definition of a new Bull Market. Historical data indicates that once a new Bull Market has been confirmed, the shortest time period on record (since 1950) before the beginning of another Bear Market was approximately 4.4 months, and the longest time on record was approximately 10.7 years, with the average coming in at about 3.2 years. Only 17 days have elapsed from the point of Bull confirmation in this instance so far.
From a probabilistic analysis perspective, stock types range from near fair value (such as with mid cap stocks) to significantly overvalued (in the case of large cap growth stocks). Bond types range from near fair value (in the case of emerging markets bonds) to slightly overvalued (in the case of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). Against this backdrop the outlook for stocks is now neutral in the intermediate term based on the overall aggregate of our historical market-type data analysis and quantitative probabilistic analysis.
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities are now the best performers so far in 2020, while US small cap stocks show the worst year-to-date performance. US mid cap stock now reflect the most attractive pricing relative to the alternatives, while US large cap growth and tech stocks are by far the least attractive. With regards to allocations amongst investment methods, we are now allowing overweight allocations to Liability-Driven Investing, neutral allocations to Strategic Asset Allocation, and underweights to Selective/Concentrated Investing, and Opportunistic Investing.
I hope this was helpful. If you have questions or you’d like to discuss how to implement any of this, please contact 4Thought at 516-300-1617 or at firstname.lastname@example.org – and don’t forget to subscribe to our blog feed and our YouTube channel. Thanks for watching, and see you next week.
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