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4Thought’s Weekly Market Perspective: 11/10/2020

4Thought provides actionable investment analysis and perspective on the financial markets to you on a weekly basis.


4Thought provides actionable investment analysis and perspective on the financial markets to you on a weekly basis.

Contact us to determine whether any ideas presented are applicable to your situation before taking any actions with regards to your financial plan or investment portfolio. 

Hear from Chief Investment Officer Jesse Mackey in this week's Market Perspective.

Video Transcript

I’m Jesse Mackey, CIO of 4Thought Financial Group, and this is 4Thought’s Weekly Market Perspective for the week of November 10th, 2020.

On September 24th, the S&P 500 Index of US large cap stocks had experienced a downward correction of 10.55% from its September 2nd record peak price (as measured on an intraday basis). As of the close of business yesterday, it had fully recovered and achieved a new record price. We like to refer to the combination of a correction and its corresponding recovery (like the one we just experienced) as a Wolf Market.

Prior to this, the rapid recovery from the 2020 Bear Market low point on March 23rd (at which point the S&P 500 had dropped more than 34% from its previous peak) met our technical definition of a new Bull Market. Historical data indicates that once a new Bull Market has been confirmed (which happened on August 18th), the shortest time period on record (since 1950) before the beginning of another Bear Market was approximately 4.4 months, and the longest time on record was approximately 10.7 years, with the average coming in at about 3.2 years. Only 2.8 months have elapsed from the point of Bull confirmation in this instance so far.

In addition, there has usually been at least one 10%+ correction (but often several) between most bear markets in history. The first correction and full recovery in this bull market was confirmed yesterday. Historical data further tells us that 75% percent of Wolf Markets like this have been immediately followed by a period that exhibits trailing 1-year returns of 30% or greater (something we refer to as an Eagle Market). The other 25% percent of the time we return to a plain old bull market (at least for a short time period). Either way, scenarios like this have historically been largely positive for stocks in the short to intermediate term.

From a probabilistic analysis perspective, stock types range from near fair value (such as with mid cap and international developed markets stocks) to moderately overvalued (in the case of large cap growth stocks). Bond types range from near fair value (in the case of emerging markets bonds) to slightly overvalued (in the case of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). Against this backdrop the outlook for stocks is now positive in the short to intermediate term based on the overall aggregate of our historical market-type data analysis and quantitative probabilistic analysis.

US large cap stocks are now the best performers so far in 2020, while US small cap stocks show the worst year-to-date performance. US mid cap stocks now reflect the most attractive pricing relative to the alternatives, while US large cap growth and tech stocks are by far the least attractive. With regards to allocations amongst investment methods, we are now allowing overweight allocations to Selective/Concentrated Investing, neutral allocations to Strategic Asset Allocation, and underweights to Liability-Driven Investing and Opportunistic Investing.

I hope this was helpful. If you have questions or you’d like to discuss what this means for your particular situation, please contact 4Thought at 516-300-1617 or at info@4tfg.com – and don’t forget to subscribe to our blog feed and our YouTube channel. Thanks for watching, and see you next week.

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